Greater Phoenix Summer Market: Buyers Finally Have Leverage

Greater Phoenix incomes are rising, and the summer housing market is officially upon us. That’s a more interesting combination than it sounds, because when incomes climb while home prices hold steady, affordability quietly improves without anyone announcing it.

So let me walk through what the numbers actually say right now, starting with buyers and then moving to sellers.

Incomes are outpacing inflation. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Arizona ranked seventh in the nation for personal income growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, rising 4.3%. Earnings from work increased even faster at 5.7%. Both measures are outpacing inflation, which matters more than most headlines let on. At the same time, home prices have stayed mostly unchanged, and mortgage rates have been holding near 6.6%. Put those together, and housing affordability is gradually improving here.

Where prices actually stand. The median home price remains about 4.8% below its June 2022 peak of $480,000. That headline number hides real variation by price point, though. Homes priced below $500,000 have generally declined by about 4% to 5%, while prices between $500,000 and $1 million have stayed relatively stable. Luxury homes above $1 million, on the other hand, have continued to appreciate. So what your home is worth depends heavily on where it sits in that range.

Buyers have time and leverage. Today’s market gives buyers something they simply didn’t have in 2021: time and negotiating power. Most homes now stay available for more than a month before going under contract, which means you can actually think before you write an offer. Buyers may be able to negotiate repairs, closing cost assistance, or even a temporary mortgage rate buydown. In some cases, seller assistance can be worth around $10,000. That’s real money back in your pocket, and it’s the kind of thing that was unthinkable a few years ago.

Plan on three to five years. The tradeoff is that buyers shouldn’t expect immediate appreciation. Anyone purchasing today should generally plan to own the property for at least three to five years, which gives you enough time to move through the current market cycle. That’s not a warning so much as a planning horizon. If your timeline is shorter than that, we should talk about whether buying is the right call for you right now.

How equity builds anyway. Even modest appreciation builds meaningful wealth over time. Consider a $450,000 home purchased with 10% down. If it appreciates by an average of 3% annually, you’d gain more than $72,000 in appreciation over five years. Add roughly $25,500 from paying down the mortgage, plus your original down payment, and total equity could reach about $142,500. That’s why homeownership is often described as a forced savings account. You’re building something whether or not the market gives you a dramatic year.

Demand is improving for sellers. So what does this market look like if you’re selling? Buyer demand is improving despite higher mortgage rates. Listings under contract are up 5.1%, and closed sales are up 7.6%. There also appears to be pent-up demand that becomes noticeable when mortgage rates fall below 6.5%, and stronger still as rates approach 6%. Buyers are waiting for a reason to move, and small rate changes are enough to bring them out.

Summer brings the usual slowdown. The honest caveat is seasonal. Summer here always brings a slowdown, and Phoenix’s extreme heat, combined with holiday weekends around Memorial Day, the Fourth of July, and Labor Day, can temporarily thin out buyer activity. That’s normal, and it’s temporary, but it’s worth factoring into your timing if you’re deciding when to list.

Fewer sellers mean less competition. The good news for sellers is that fewer homeowners are listing right now. New listings are arriving at one of the lowest rates recorded since 2000, which is helping reduce available supply. Less competition on the market means a well-prepared home stands out more than it would in a crowded field.

So the bottom line is that buyers currently have more negotiating power and less competition, while patient sellers can still benefit from improving demand and limited new inventory. Whichever side you’re on, your strategy should come down to your timeline, your price range, and your individual financial goals rather than a headline about the market as a whole.

If you’d like to talk through what these conditions mean for your specific situation, whether you’re thinking about selling or weighing a purchase this summer, reach out anytime. Call or text me at 602-430-5226, email me at natem@remax.net, or visit asknatemartinez.com. I’d be glad to help you build a plan around your numbers.